This is a big weekend for the eBay seller community because of eBay Live in Boston. Its a huge bash . . . and generally lots of good feelings all around (sprinkled with some encouraged honest venting as well). Well, it looked like Google planned to crash the party and got the heisman . . .

I remember in 2005 Alibaba pulled the same stunt and gave away mp3 players at a hotel suite next door to the convention center. (sad to say I didnt get one but not because I didnt try! . . . ) Not sure if it was effective at all except it helped expose the poor quality of no name chinese made mp3 players.

I believe eBay and Google still have a detante as far as open warfare, but this is still a crack in the facade. We now know what are the first few cards each side will use when open warfare starts . . . Perhaps Google gently provoked eBay just to see what eBay’s first move might be (brilliant!).

I certainly hope that eBay has all the scenerios planned out (actually I’m pretty sure they have given how meticulous the whole place it) cause the first card they showed Google is certainly a face card and you have to save your better cards for the end. If open hostility does happen, it wont be pretty for everyone. Google probably knows exactly how much revenue they would loose which not only includes direct spendings but also the incremental bids eBay’s ubiqitous adword program generates. eBay on the other hand probably knows all the transactions Google helps drive from NATURAL as well as PAID search as Google will likely blacklist the entire eBay site from its index as the last resort.

If they do so (wipe ebay.com from its index), the act will no doubt be labled and considered “EVIL.” For quite a long time, Google has pointed to the integrity of its organic search results as something they will not compromise for its own interests. (eh. . . ex China ). As bad as this action will be for eBay, long term, it might be even worse for Google as it will forever have to throw away its “do no evil” mantra and come to the self-realization that they too are willing compromise the user’s experience and interests to win at all cost . . . MSFT lost its ways in the early 90’s when it started down this road . . . and it is still trying to rehab that image despite almost a decade worth of PR and hard work.

Hubris . . . this need to “win” against the competition despite all else. . . has and will continue to be the downfall of the mighty.

Another random thought, I took a college class a long long time ago on nuclear warefare/politics and the principles of MAD - Mutually Assured Distruction during the cold war. Using game theory, the logical Nash equilibrium would predict both parties will not provoke eachother ONLY IF both sides remain equally likely to destroy each other if conflict breaks out. So ironically the best course of action for BOTH eBay and Google would be to not only continue to maintain the status quo but also to INCREASE the mutual dependency of both companies - raising the stakes if you will. And thus, coopetition is not only a product of the wierd dynamics of the technology industry but the LOGICAL and RATIONAL thing to do!