Thoroughly Confused By Forrester
I must be crazy or stupid, I have no idea what George Colony of Forrester is talking about. . . Now given that he is the CEO of Forrester, I must be completely dense since I find his latest Quick Take, a little light on content and heavy on self created buzzword.
Most of us use two types of computer software: 1) programs like Microsoft Word or Oracle Financials, and 2) Web files — like a corporate intranet or Amazon. You can perform many tasks with programs because they are executable; they contain millions of lines of computer code that enable you to underline words, calculate profit and loss, check spelling, etc. You pay for programs — ostensibly to defray the high cost of writing all of those lines of computer code.
In comparison, the Web files we use are like documents. When you click on a link for a site, the server at that site sends you pages of information. Web files are mostly static — they can’t do much compared with programs. Their limited functions (buy buttons, search) don’t execute on your computer — the server that you are connected to does most of the work.
Eh. . . ever heard of Ajax? Or even better, hotmail? Static website are so 1994. Whether a program executes on your desk top or not is extremely irrelevant. Client Server, mainframe, mini-computer applications are not completely executed on the client side either, that doesn’t make them “dumb” or “static” With all the talk of Google bringing openoffice to the web and MSFT re-architecting MSoffice for the web browser, I’m really not sure where George is going with the “web cant compete with desktop apps in functionality” argument.
Forrester has predicted that Web pages will get replaced by programs — we call this executable Internet (X Internet). In the future, when you click on your bank’s site, servers will download a program to your computer, not static pages. Once that program is installed, you will be able to “converse” with your bank, run financial models, analyze your net worth — do much more than you could have with old Web pages.
. . . this is getting ridiculous . . . I’m betting all these “conversation” are going to be done right on the webpage using AJAX. Actually I think my Ameritrade account does this pretty well and I’m pretty sure I’m not downloading anything.
Google is also leading a pricing revolution. Google’s programs are free, funded through advertising and syndication. This is a prescient move. I foresee a world in which even enterprise applications like financials, ERP, and supply chain software will be advertising-funded.
SAP serving up ads? What would Johnson & Johnson’s CIO think. . . better yet, Jeff Nolan might have a cow just about now. . .
What It Means No. 1: Large corporations should get Google executable Internet programs onto their corporate desktops. Google Desktop Search, Google Toolbar, and Google Maps will drive productivity. In addition, this move gets corporate IT ready for a world in which free executables will begin to proliferate. IT staffs will learn to incorporate Google’s programs and application programming interfaces into corporate Web experiences.
I’m at a lost for words. . .
What It Means No. 4: The coming of executable Internet fundamentally changes the software and Internet landscape. Microsoft is an obvious loser. The closed, centralized architectures of Oracle and SAP will get a bunch of new salesforce.com-type challengers over the next five years. Amazon, AOL, eBay, and Yahoo! will be stuck with old Web-style experiences — not as easy, fast, and customizable as the executable Internet experience. That is why Google may be so dangerous for its Internet brethren — it knows programming and they don’t.
If George is right, that downloadable thick client apps are going to take over the world, I think Microsoft more than Google is going to have a kick ass time, as that’s what they’ve advocated for the last 3 years. BTW saleforce.com is not a thick client, it’s a “static” web file. Also, Google Maps is not a X-internet downloadable app, its AJAX or AJAX-like more technically correct. Google knows programming? That I agree. . . other companies like Amazon, Yahoo, and eBay don’t? huh? Sure we don’t have as many PHD’s as google but we still got plenty of genius CS types running around the company. . .
So here’s Google’s playbook: 1) have the best search; 2) have more of the world to search than anyone else through the digitization of university libraries, earth images, maps, etc.; 3) attract the most advertising and syndication; enabling the company to 4) give all of its software away for free; which enables it to 5) change the rules and economics of the software business and define the future through its pioneering work in X Internet.
Ok. . . I’m being a little facetious, and didn’t mean to take George lightly. I do agree with his final analysis that Google is changing the economics of the software business and that it is much much more than a search company. Maybe what he menat by X Internet is really web 2.0+Ajax . . . that would make more sense . . . but why doesnt he just say so instead of inventing another word. . . and why does he think Google has the exclusive expertise on Ajax? has he tried out Yahoo Mail 2.0 yet? . . . strange . . .
(I’m sure someone will flame me for this post. . . so go for it 
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BTW, other people’s analysis here (apparent I’m the only one that had an allergic reaction to the article)
