Hitchhiker’s Guide to 650 :: August :: 2005

Start-Ups, TechnologyAugust 9, 2005 7:20 pm

In Om’s latest post on Skype’s acquisition rumors (more here), he left quite a bomb at the end. . .

So what does that really tell me? Two things. First, Skype is open to the right offer. Secondly, the asking price of $3 billion is tad too over optimistic. There must also be realization that in not so distant future, the wireless and wireline operators are going to clamp down on Skype, and create quality of service issues for the service. More on that later.

well here is how they can do it. . . (not technically but rationally)

Taking a note from the WiFi world, the legality of sharing bandwidth has yet to be determined. Most ISPs except Earthlink and Speakeasy have terms in their customer contracts that expressly prohibits sharing bandwidth with a third party (targeting WiFi Access Points). Lots of ISP’s have already sued companies for “sharing” bandwidth via an open AP or shared WEP/WPA password.

Now, if I remember how Skype works, Skype members are essentially nodes in the Skype peer-2-peer network. As a result, every node acts as a router, directing traffic/packets from another node until it reaches its ultimate destination. Once someone joins the network by downloading the application, they are essentially letting other people’s “voice traffic” hop through their ISP connection on the way to the final IP address. Technically, this could be considered bandwidth sharing.

There are plenty of RBOC’s with huge traction in their ISP/DSL service. If they want to, they can shut down the Skype applet by claiming the users are violating their customer agreement. Not everyone needs to do shut Skype down to effect Skype’s QoS, if just 10% of ISP’s do this, quality of the Skype network will deteriate exponentially.

I’m not sure its the best business practice to piss off your customers (the music industry learned this), but you never know if the RBOC’s will get desperate enough.

China 10:05 am

Rumors flying everywhere. Outside of China, the rumors are about Yahoo buying Alibaba, But the Chinese press seems to believe that Alibaba is “acquiring” Yahoo! China.

More details from Pacific Epoch

Chinese business to business website Alibaba will transfer a 35 percent stake of the company to Yahoo and in return gain control of Yahoo China’s core businesses, reports Sina quoting an inside source. The deal will not involve cash and Alibaba CEO Jack Ma might be appointed Yahoo China president, said the source. Softbank, one of Alibaba’s investors, is also participating in the negotiations. Yahoo’s China businesses currently include a Chinese Internet portal, the search engine Yisou, online auction website 1pai (a joint venture with Sina (Nasdaq: SINA)) and instant messaging service Yahoo Messenger.

This sounds more plausible given that Zhou Hongyi, Founder of 3721 & ex-President of Yahoo China, left or was forced out of Yahoo! China recently. Yahoo currently believes a local Chinese is best suited to run its business China and is actively seeking an replacement. Furthermore, Jack Ma has notoriously big ego ambitions so this will definitely be something he’ll be interested in. A minority stake by Yahoo! will also not preclude an eventual IPO (although not likely) which will keep the VC’s as well as Jack happy on that front too. Ofcourse, does Yahoo! want to create another Yahoo! Japan situation where its essentially a separate business with its own agendas. Ceding the fastest growing internet market to a minority owned subsidiary is not exactly the smartest thing to do for Yahoo’s global ambitions. Thus, if this moves forward, I’m sure Yahoo will include a buyout clause where it is allowed to buy Alibaba at a certain premium to its expected IPO pricing to take it whole thing off market and back into the fold. (You gotta admire Jack Ma’s negotiation skills to turn a potential acquisition by Yahoo to the current configuration where he gets the best of both worlds - money, position, visibility)

Expect Alibaba to move aggressively into other markets (portal, gaming, IM, etc) creating another huge mess. Remember Alibaba is certainly not afraid of being an new entrant in a market with entrenched players, think Taobao vs. EachNet.